Japan example of successful protection against uncontrolled spread of corona?
Germany and Japan are both affected by the Corona Virus, protection measures are being taken in both countries and intensive means are being sought to contain the spread.
The development of the spread of the virus increasingly differentiates Germany and Japan from each other. Growth in Japan appears to be under control. In contrast, in Germany, where the first cases occurred much later than in Japan, the number of infected citizens is now 30 times higher than in Japan. In Germany (as of March 25, 2020), 439 people are infected per million inhabitants, and 8.2 people in Japan at the same time. With its extremely high population density (Japan 340 people per km2, Greater Tokyo with 38 million inhabitants: 2740 people per km2, Germany 230 per km2 for comparison), Japan would actually be predestined for a rapid spread of the virus.
The fact that Japan actually presents a virus infection growth curve that is essentially flatter than that of Germany may essentially have one reason in the fact that Japan decided at a very early stage to slow down social activities, starting with the decision to close school on Feb. 29, at a time when only 206 confirm cases of Corona virus were registered. In Germany it took until March 13 and 3,062 confirmed cases to come to the same decision.
The following two charts show:
• The actual development of confirmed Corona virus infection cases
• The actual development as persons per 1 Million Citizens
• The development comparing Germany and Japan under the assumption that after raising full awareness of the danger each infected person infect 1.5 people with Japan starting in cycle 1 with 206 confirmed cases and Germany in cycle two with 3,062 confirmed cases
The completely different hygienic behavior and the high level of awareness of the danger, combined with disciplined compliance with the regulations, obviously restrict the virus from spreading in Japan. In addition, there is probably also the form of mutual greeting without physical contact. Placing the shoes on the front door also contributes to cleanliness and sterility in the apartments. The extreme closeness in living together may have always been the reason for a very high level of hygiene awareness. This awareness and disciplined may well be the reason why the developments in Japan are even flatter than shown in below third chart which assumes the same infection rate of 1.5 for German and Japan after school closure.
(Enclosed graphic of Japan and Germany in comparison; sources: Japan Ministry for Health Labour and Welfare; Germany Bundesministerium für Gesundheit, Robert Koch Institut)
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